PORTFOLIO CASE · ANALYTICS × BUSINESS
Merchant Growth & Fintech Profitability
A decision dashboard for merchant acquisition, campaign incrementality, wallet adoption, and financing guardrails.
Synthetic-data notice: Every value is deterministic synthetic data (seed 42). Results are simulated or modeled, not realized company performance.
THB 139.8MGMV, completed orders
THB 14.4MContribution margin before fixed costs
10.3%Contribution margin / GMV
25.4%Wallet order attach rate
Executive recommendation
Concentrate the pilot on the highest-scoring merchant-city groups, scale only randomized campaigns with positive incremental contribution ROI, ship the wallet treatment as a controlled pilot, and keep financing behind an 8% default-rate guardrail.
Merchant segments — contribution margin
Campaigns — incremental contribution ROI
Wallet onboarding experiment
Treatment absolute lift: 7.9%; 95% CI 0.2% to 15.6%; p=0.045. Decision: SHIP PILOT.
| Variant | Assigned | Activated | Activation rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control | 302 | 116 | 38.4% |
| Treatment | 326 | 151 | 46.3% |
Financing risk guardrails
| City | Segment | Uptake | Late payment | Default |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiang Mai | micro | nan% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bangkok | micro | nan% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chiang Mai | enterprise | 44.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| Phuket | micro | nan% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Khon Kaen | micro | nan% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Khon Kaen | enterprise | 42.9% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| Phuket | growth | 40.0% | 12.4% | 0.7% |
| Khon Kaen | growth | 39.7% | 15.6% | 0.9% |
| Bangkok | growth | 36.3% | 14.2% | 1.1% |
| Chiang Mai | growth | 38.7% | 17.2% | 1.4% |
| Bangkok | enterprise | 41.4% | 18.9% | 2.7% |
| Phuket | enterprise | 44.0% | 20.7% | 3.4% |